The FIRE Monte Carlo Simulator is an advanced tool for retirement planning. Unlike standard calculators that assume a fixed return (e.g., 10% every year), this tool runs 1,000 simulations using realistic market volatility. It answers the most critical question: 'What is the chance my money will last 30+ years?' even if a market crash happens right after I retire.
Why Monte Carlo Simulation?
Markets are volatile. A 10% average return doesn't mean you get 10% every year. You might get -20% one year and +30% the next.
Sequence of Returns Risk matters: If you retire just before a market crash, your portfolio might never recover because you are withdrawing money while it is down.
This simulator tests your portfolio against 1,000 random market futures (Bull markets, Bear markets, Stagnation) to give you a Probability of Success.
Example: The 4% Rule Stress Test
Rahul has ₹2 Crore and spends ₹8 Lakh/year (4% withdrawal).
• Standard Calculator: Says he will have ₹15 Crore in 30 years (assuming straight 10% returns).
• Monte Carlo Simulator: Shows he has a 85% Chance of Success. In the worst 10% of scenarios (bad market crash), he runs out of money in year 22.
This insight helps Rahul decide whether to save more or reduce spending.
Frequently Asked Questions
⚠️ Disclaimer
The figures provided by this calculator are estimates based on the inputs you provide and standard financial formulas. STOCKCALC.IN does not offer investment advice. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.