FIRE Monte Carlo Simulator

Don't rely on averages. Test your retirement plan against 1,000 realistic market scenarios including crashes and high inflation.

Simulation Parameters

₹1,00,00,000
₹6,00,000
30 Years
60% Equity / 40% Debt

Implies ~10.0% Return, ±10.6% Volatility

6%
Press "Run Simulation" to see results

What does this mean?

Unlike traditional calculators that assume you get exactly 12% return every single year, this simulator adds Real World Chaos.

  • Success Rate < 80%: Your plan is risky. You might run out of money if a recession hits early in your retirement.
  • Success Rate > 95%: Your plan is very safe. You might be saving too much or could spend more!
  • Worst Case (Bottom 10%): This line shows what happens in a "Bad Market" scenario (like 2008 recession hitting twice). If this line stays above zero, your plan is bulletproof.

The FIRE Monte Carlo Simulator is an advanced tool for retirement planning. Unlike standard calculators that assume a fixed return (e.g., 10% every year), this tool runs 1,000 simulations using realistic market volatility. It answers the most critical question: 'What is the chance my money will last 30+ years?' even if a market crash happens right after I retire.

Why Monte Carlo Simulation?

Markets are volatile. A 10% average return doesn't mean you get 10% every year. You might get -20% one year and +30% the next.

Sequence of Returns Risk matters: If you retire just before a market crash, your portfolio might never recover because you are withdrawing money while it is down.

This simulator tests your portfolio against 1,000 random market futures (Bull markets, Bear markets, Stagnation) to give you a Probability of Success.

Example: The 4% Rule Stress Test

Rahul has ₹2 Crore and spends ₹8 Lakh/year (4% withdrawal).

Standard Calculator: Says he will have ₹15 Crore in 30 years (assuming straight 10% returns).
Monte Carlo Simulator: Shows he has a 85% Chance of Success. In the worst 10% of scenarios (bad market crash), he runs out of money in year 22.

This insight helps Rahul decide whether to save more or reduce spending.

Corpus: ₹2 Crore
Withdrawal: ₹8 Lakh/year
Simulation: 85% Success Rate

Frequently Asked Questions

⚠️ Disclaimer

The figures provided by this calculator are estimates based on the inputs you provide and standard financial formulas. STOCKCALC.IN does not offer investment advice. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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